Energetics of monsoon rain – Using a hierarchy of climate models to understand future summer monsoons.

Project highlights

Contribute to efforts to constrain future predictions of changes to the global monsoon system, which impacts billions of people
Explore a hierarchy of climate model data and tools, from state-of-the-art models, to simpler idealised models, to pen and paper theories
Build experience in climate dynamics, numerical modelling and experiment design, as well as skills in data analysis, coding and project management

Overview

Maps show where monsoon rain falls in June-Sept and Dec-March and photos show dry vs vegetated mountains in May vs August.
Figure 1: Tropical rain shifts north and south into the summer hemisphere throughout the year, particularly over land, accompanied by changes in the prevailing low-level wind direction. Top: Maps of precipitation and lower-level winds in boreal summer and winter. Bottom: Photos of Western Ghats, India, in 2010: (left) May, before the monsoon arrives vs (right) August, during the monsoon (Arne Hückelheim).

Summer monsoons are the rainy summer seasons observed in tropical/subtropical regions around the world. As the summer hemisphere warms, tropical rain is drawn away from the Equator, particularly over land. It is estimated that over one third of the world’s population rely on monsoon rain for their water supply. Excessive rain can cause flooding with impacts on safety and hygiene, while a deficit can lead to drought and crop failure. Unfortunately future changes to the monsoons are uncertain, with different state-of-the-art models predicting both local increases and decreases in rainfall (e.g. Chadwick et al. 2013).

At the most basic level, two factors appear important in setting where monsoon rain falls: the thermal contrasts between the northern and southern hemisphere, and between land and ocean. Recently, simple energetic arguments have helped link the zonally averaged north/south location of tropical rain to the heating contrast between the hemispheres, but these arguments are less clear when applied to rain on regional scales (Atwood et al. 2020, Geen et al. 2020). This project will explore the role of east/west thermal contrasts (e.g. land-sea contrast) in setting the regional location of monsoon rain and its response to climate change. We will make use of a combination of observations, state-of-the-art model data, and idealised model simulations to explore questions such as:

How do east/west circulations affect where rain falls locally and how it may shift in future climates? Are these regional circulation patterns constrained by the zonal-mean north/south energy balance?
How are responses to localised, remote forcings, such as Arctic warming and aerosols, communicated between latitudes to achieve energy balance?
Which climate change responses of the monsoons are consistent across state-of-the-art models and why?

This project would best suit a student with a numerical background, for example Physics, Maths or Meteorology, ideally with experience coding in Python or similar (e.g. Matlab, R, IDL).

CENTA Flagship

This is a CENTA Flagship Project

Case funding

This project is suitable for CASE funding

Host

University of Birmingham

Theme

Climate and Environmental Sustainability

Supervisors

Project investigator

Dr. Ruth Geen, University of Birmingham ([email protected])

Co-investigators

Dr. Robin Chadwick, UK Met Office ([email protected])

How to apply

Each host has a slightly different application process.
Find out how to apply for this studentship.
All applications must include the CENTA application form.
Choose your application route

Methodology

Theory developed in the literature (see further reading) will be used to interpret differences between the zonal mean and regional tropical rainband response to forcings such as greenhouse gases and changes in extratropical/polar temperatures. We will use the following tools:

Isca (https://execlim.github.io/IscaWebsite/ ) is a fast idealised climate modelling framework that allows users to run simulations with different configurations of land and orography, and different levels of physical complexity. The student will run Isca to explore how theory might explain behaviour seen in observations and state-of-the-art climate models.

The 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) includes state-of-the-art model simulations of greenhouse gas scenarios (ScenarioMIP), as well as experiments examining physical parametrisations (CFMIP), polar amplification (PAMIP) and past climates (PMIP). This provides a large suite of data over which to explore shifts in tropical rain.

Training and skills

Students will be awarded CENTA2 Training Credits (CTCs) for participation in CENTA2-provided and ‘free choice’ external training. One CTC equates to 1⁄2 day session and students must accrue 100 CTCs across the three years of their PhD.

The student will build specialist knowledge in tropical climate dynamics, and experience in analysing and interpreting climate data and running a climate model. The student will also gain computing skills, in particular coding and visualising data with Python, with the opportunity to build further transferrable skills in model development, version control (Git) and coding in a low-level language (FORTAN). In the longer term, this PhD should provide a strong foundation for an academic career in climate dynamics research, or a career in the private sector e.g. the growing Climate Intelligence industry.

Partners and collaboration

This project is jointly supervised between the University of Birmingham and the UK Met Office, and includes a CASE studentship with the UK Met Office. Ruth Geen (University of Birmingham) brings expertise in monsoon dynamics and in using the model hierarchy to deepen our understanding of climate. Rob Chadwick (UK Met Office) brings expertise in the tropical circulation and rainfall, their changes with climate change and variability and their representation in CMIP models. Depending on the direction taken, there may be further opportunities for collaboration with groups in the USA, China, and the University of Exeter, UK.

Further details

Please contact Dr. Ruth Geen, University of Birmingham, [email protected] for more information about the project and application process.

If you wish to apply to the project, applications should include:

A CENTA application form, downloadable from: CENTA application

A CV with the names of at least two referees (preferably three and who can comment on your academic abilities)

Submit your application and complete the host institution application process via: https://sits.bham.ac.uk/lpages/LES068.htm. and go to Apply Now in the PhD Geography and Environmental Science (CENTA) section. Please quote CENTA23_B21 when completing the application form.

Applications to be received by the end of the day on Wednesday 11^th January 2023.

Additional information for international applicants

All international applicants must ensure they can fulfil the University of Birmingham’s international student entry requirements, which includes English language requirements. For further information please visit https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/postgraduate/pgt/requirements-pgt/international/index.aspx.
Please be aware that CENTA funding will only cover University fees at the level of support for Home-fee eligible students. The University is only able to waive the difference on the international fee level for a maximum of two successful international applicants.

Possible timeline

Year 1

Student runs simple Isca simulations with various land configurations, and looks at how both the global and regional monsoon circulations respond to increased carbon dioxide, changes in prescribed ocean heat transport, and warming or cooling in the extratropics.

Year 2

Student connects results to state-of-the-art CMIP6 simulations, e.g. ScenarioMIP, CFMIP, PAMIP and PMIP, and designs further idealised simulations as appropriate.

Year 3

Student explores a direction of interest with further Isca simulations and CMIP6 analysis, e.g. role of cloud feedbacks, land hydrology, sea-ice, or paleo-monsoons.

COVID-19

This project will be computational, using infrastructure at the University of Birmingham which has remained available throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. All goals would be achievable while working remotely. The student will be supported in engaging with the local, national and international scientific communities virtually if COVID-19 limits opportunities for travel and networking.