2026-B29 Enhancing risk recognition and preparedness for volcanic tsunami hazards in Indonesia

PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS

  • Fieldwork in eastern Indonesia to assess volcanic tsunami risk 
  • Engage with communities and hazard management agencies to evaluate current protocols and preparedness 
  • Combine local- and national-scale analyses to evaluate exposure and identify priorities for future monitoring and hazard planning 

Overview

Indonesia is among the most exposed regions globally to volcanic hazards. Among these hazards, volcanic tsunamis present a particular challenge and have been the cause of several disasters in the past two centuries. Part of the challenge of managing volcanic tsunami hazards lies in the complexity of potential sources and the unpredictability of their timing and size. Maintaining awareness for these low-frequency but potentially extreme-magnitude events, and incorporating these events into hazard management planning, is a further challenge. Adding to these factors, the areas most at risk from volcanic tsunamis are isolated small-island sites in eastern and northern Indonesia, which have limited baseline geological knowledge of past events. This project will address these challenges by: 

  • Advancing knowledge of tsunami-generating processes and past events at identified high-risk sites through targeted fieldwork, building on recent studies of Anak Krakatau, Ruang and Awu volcanoes. 
  • Combining insights from historical events with analyses of eruption records, geomorphological indicators and vulnerability assessments, to evaluate exposure to volcanic tsunamis on a national scale. This will seek to identify priorities for flank monitoring and for the development of site-specific volcanic-tsunami hazard management plans, and to recognise onshore and offshore knowledge gaps. 
  • Working with hazard management agencies to understand current volcanic and tsunami monitoring and management procedures at the identified priority locations, and with communities to assess awareness of volcanic-tsunami risk. The project will draw on this assessment to produce recommendations for effectively incorporating research insights into future monitoring and preparedness strategies. 

Collectively, this approach aims to bridge the current gap between the outputs of research focused studies of volcanic tsunami risk, mechanisms and scenarios, and how effectively these outputs inform and support volcanic-tsunami monitoring and hazard management plans. By undertaking this work in Indonesia, a region with multiple island volcanoes and an extensive history of past volcanic tsunamis, the project also aims to develop research approaches and to develop guidance that can support more effective volcanic-tsunami risk evaluations in other vulnerable parts of the world.  

Figure 1: Current ranking-based evaluation of tsunami risk in Indonesia, from Zorn et al., 2022, highlighting tsunami potential across multiple island sites in eastern Indonesia. 

A detailed map of Indonesia displaying the locations and eruption frequencies of various volcanoes. Volcanoes are marked with triangles and circles of different sizes and colors, ranging from yellow to red, indicating varying levels of volcanic activity. Each volcano is labeled with its name and a number in brackets representing its eruption frequency. Notable volcanoes include Peuet Sague, Krakatau, Rinjani, Ijen, Agung, Karangetang, Soputan, Gamkonora, Gamalama, Wetar, Batu Tara, Sirung, and Iliwerung.

Case funding

This project is not suitable for CASE funding

Host

  • University of Birmingham

Theme

  • Dynamic Earth

Supervisors

Project investigator

Co-investigators

How to apply

Each host has a slightly different application process.
Find out how to apply for this studentship.

All applications must include the CENTA application form.
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The project will involve various data types and collection methods: 

  • Fieldwork at target sites (e.g. Banda arc, Halmahera arc) to determine tsunami mechanisms from historical events, including stratigraphic description and sampling of ocean-entering events and potential for shallow offshore surveying in collaboration with Indonesian partners. This will add to a growing dataset of well-constrained historical volcanic tsunamis, providing a firmer foundation to evaluating future risk from a range of tsunami scenarios. 
  • Database development and analysis for a re-evaluation of national volcanic-tsunami risk combining historical events, geomorphological assessment of slope instability indicators, analysis of past eruption records, and assessment of vulnerability factors including population and infrastructure exposure and current monitoring. 
  • Collation and analysis of current volcanic-tsunami hazard management protocols and community hazard awareness, using surveys and interviews, to identify challenges in developing effective management strategies and incorporating these alongside other geohazard monitoring and preparedness efforts. 

DRs will be awarded CENTA Training Credits (CTCs) for participation in CENTA-provided and ‘free choice’ external training. One CTC can be earned per 3 hours training, and DRs must accrue 100 CTCs across the three and a half years of their PhD.  

Training will be provided directly within the project in a variety of methods, drawing on guidance from the supervisory team and through interactions with Indonesian research partners. This includes training in field data collection; interpretation of physical volcanic processes, including tsunami mechanisms; database construction and analysis; and qualitative data collection and analysis methods for evaluation of hazard management and awareness. 

The supervisory team includes partnership from the British Geological Survey, from members of the hazards and risk team. The partnership brings in project-relevant volcanological and interdisciplinary expertise, including in hazard and vulnerability assessment, multi-hazard processes and social science methods applied to volcanology. 

Year 1: Compilation and analysis of archival datasets; regional evaluations and geomorphological analyses; fieldwork planning and preparation; Indonesian agency engagement. Fieldwork near end of Year 1. 

Year 2: Analysis of field datasets, including geological sample and field survey data and community surveying. Development of regional scale reassessment of tsunami risk; preparation of manuscripts for local field-study sites and national tsunami risk evaluation. 

Year 3: Finalisation of manuscripts; evaluation of hazard management protocols and development of recommendations; publication of final manuscript/technical report in collaboration with Indonesian partners. 

Grilli, S.T., Tappin, D.R., Carey, S., Watt, S.F., Ward, S.N., Grilli, A.R., Engwell, S.L., Zhang, C., Kirby, J.T., Schambach, L. and Muin, M., 2019. Modelling of the tsunami from the December 22, 2018 lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Straits, Indonesia. Scientific reports, 9(1), p.11946. 

Pranantyo, I.R., Heidarzadeh, M. and Cummins, P.R., 2021. Complex tsunami hazards in eastern Indonesia from seismic and non-seismic sources: Deterministic modelling based on historical and modern data. Geoscience Letters, 8(1), p.20. 

Zorn, E.U., Orynbaikyzy, A., Plank, S., Babeyko, A., Darmawan, H., Robbany, I.F. and Walter, T.R., 2022. Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(9), pp.3083-3104. 

Further details and How to Apply

Please contact Seb Watt on [email protected] for further information. 

 To apply to this project:  

  • You must include a CV with the names of at least two referees (preferably three) who can comment on your academic abilities.  
  • Please submit your application and complete the host institution application process via: https://sits.bham.ac.uk/lpages/LES068.htm.   Please select the PhD Geography and Environmental Science (CENTA) 2026/27 Apply Now button. The CENTA Studentship Application Form 2026 and CV can be uploaded to the Application Information section of the online form.  Please quote 2026-B29 when completing the application form.  

 Applications must be submitted by 23:59 GMT on Wednesday 7th January 2026.   

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