2025-OU6 The role of the hydrological niche in predicting vegetation response to climate change

Project highlights

Testing a key ecological theory: niche differentiation

Working with Europe’s biggest repeat-survey botanical dataset

Using outputs of GCMs to predict catchment hydrology

Overview

The vegetation of species-rich grassland is highly responsive to soil-water regime (Silvertown et al, 1999). This statement has been demonstrated on the floodplains of England, the fixed dunes of Scotland and the fynbos of the South-African Cape (Araya et al, 2007.) The data collected in these environments were used to show the role that niche-segregation plays in underpinning coexistence within species-rich plant communities. That issue had been one of the most hotly contested areas of ecological research during the late 20th century.

There is now an opportunity to build on that earlier work to explore whether our understanding of niche segregation can be harnessed to predict the response of vegetation to alterations in hydrological regimes that are likely to result from global change. A large data set has been gathered in floodplain meadows over the past 20 years (Rothero et al, 2021) and from the Machair of the Hebrides in the past three years (Wallace et al, 2023). Such data should allow theories about the resilience of species-rich vegetation to a predicted change to be tested. The results may then allow questions around whether current nature-conservation management of such sites is appropriate to be addressed. Will plant communities prove resilient? Can we plan for future environments?

Figure 1: A floodplain meadow in England showing three distinct plant communities, whose patterning is determined by the prevailing soil–water regime.

Host

The Open University

Theme

Climate and Environmental Sustainability
Organisms and Ecosystems

Supervisors

Project investigator

David Gowing, Open University, [email protected]

Co-investigators

Irina Tatarenko, Open University, [email protected]
Simon Smart, UKCEH, [email protected]

How to apply

Each host has a slightly different application process.
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Methodology

Existing data will be interpreted to determine the tipping points at which plant species or communities change in response to altered water regime. Future water regimes will be predicted based on the output of global circulation models combined with existing field-scale hydrological models. These two pieces of information will be compared to determine whether existing communities are sufficiently resilient to adapt to predicted global change. The main emphasis will be on floodplain meadows within England because the main dataset relates to those, but one aspect will be to transfer knowledge to the machair habitat of the Hebrides, where sea-level rise will also be a component in the future hydrology. New data (both botanical and hydrological) would be gathered from selected sites to further challenge the derived relationships.

Training and skills

DRs will be awarded CENTA Training Credits (CTCs) for participation in CENTA-provided and ‘free choice’ external training. One CTC can be earned per 3 hours training, and DRs must accrue 100 CTCs across the three and a half years of their PhD.

Full training on botanical survey and species identification would be provided. Training would also be supplied in the use of differential GPS equipment, the standard techniques used to characterise soils and how to interrogate the meadows database. Help would be given on the specialist data-handling techniques and the statistical methods used specifically in the analysis of botanical data, alongside the more generic statistical methods supplied by CENTA.

Partners and collaboration

One of the supervisory team would be from UKCEH, who are a leading research organisation with specialisms in community ecology and hydrological forecasting.

Further details

Please contact David Gowing ([email protected]) if you would like to discuss this opportunity.

To apply to this project: 

You must include a CENTA studentship application form, downloadable from: CENTA Studentship Application Form 2025.

You must include a CV with the names of at least two referees (preferably three) who can comment on your academic abilities.

Your application materials, including the CENTA Studentship Application Form 2025, your CV and the Open University application form must be emailed to [email protected]. Instructions on how to apply to the Open University are to be found on https://www5.open.ac.uk/stem/environment-earth-ecosystem-sciences/research/phd-students/current-opportunities-and-how-apply, please ensure you read this webpage before applying as you will need to obtain the relevant OU application form from here. Please quote CENTA 2025-OU6 when completing the application form.

Applications must be submitted by 23:59 GMT on Wednesday 8th January 2025. 

Possible timeline

Year 1

Literature review. Familiarisation with existing data holdings. Site visits. Interrogation of GCM outputs. Development of methodology to forecast hydrological regimes at target sites.

Year 2

Run hydrological models to generate future regimes. Select appropriate parameter to assess species’ tolerance to these forecast scenarios. Make predictions at a focal site. Collect new data from the field. Attend British Ecological Society conference.

Year 3

Apply prediction methods to secondary sites for which sufficient data are available. Incorporate sea-level rise predictions for coastal communities. Undertake sensitivity analysis of the method used. Present findings at a relevant international conference/workshop. Thesis preparation.