Nedim Sladić
University of Leicester
Project
Rebalancing the scales – using data-driven approaches for advancing hydrological cycle representation in a globally resolved energy balance climate model
Supervisors
- Dr Tim Trent – University of Leicester (National Centre for Earth Observation)
- Dr Adam Povey – University of Leicester (National Centre for Earth Observation)
- Dr Richard Allan – University of Reading
- Dr Kate Willett – UK Met Office
PhD Summary
The hydrological cycle explains the water circulation across the earth-atmosphere interface and is fundamental in distributing the precipitation across the globe. This implies the Earth’s freshwater supplies and availability for ecosystems and living organisms, regulation of the weather patterns, estimation of the climate sensitivity and the preservation of the climate state equilibrium. Under the warming climate, the water vapour loading increases by approximately 7 % per 1 °C warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. This also implies the typical climate curves shift, with the new climate state explained by the increased variance and stronger skewness leaning towards more frequent hot extremes, widening the space for long-lasting, persistent heatwaves and simultaneous severe droughts and floods in different parts of the world. The warmer climate possesses more absorbed thermal energy, primarily stored in the oceans as the main reservoirs, which regulates the heat uptake and transfer from the deep ocean to the surface, the excess latent heat release into the atmosphere, and modifies the strength of the atmospheric circulation. These factors are highly dependent on the radiative processes and jointly examined by considering the heat energy fluxes exchange by applying complex mathematical partial differential equations and multi-dimensional parametrisation schemes in the global circulation models, requiring high computational strength. Instead of solving complex mathematical equations, the philosophy is focused on investigating the energy climate budget within the simplified model, often comprising one or two dimensions, represented as the interface(s). Additionally, the simplified version breaks down the mathematical factors into summative parts, frequently producing a linearised tendency equation, encapsulating the multiple smaller-scale models within a general model. This framework allows computational flexibility and variability capture as the processes become disentangled and less reliant on each other. Hence, these models exhibit a promising starting point for understanding the planetary energy budget and conducting various climate variability and sensitivity experiments, with particular attention given to poleward heat transport and fluxes in this research.
Previous activity
Before my PhD, my entire career growth was dedicated to the weather and climate, and comprehension of the various factors converging into the complete puzzle. Since there was not a department of meteorology in my home country, I had to take the diversion for my BSc degree and study related fields (i.e. software engineering and data science) at the International University of Sarajevo, before the doors opened to enrol and complete my MSc in Applied Meteorology and Climate at the University of Reading. Between the educational milestones, I served my role as a weather presenter and meteorologist on national television, attended national and international climate conferences as a speaker, and raised awareness on climate change through the lectures intended for youth and completed my internship at the ECMWF upon the deputy-director invitation where I overshadowed the role of a daily analyst.
Why did you choose doctoral research?
The doctoral research came as a logical choice since I was involved in co-authoring the papers with Dr Vlado Spiridonov from southeastern Europe during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic lockdown. I contributed to the development of the Novel Thunderstorm Alert System (NOTHAS) for assessing storm risks across different climatic regions with three papers published between 2020 and 2023. This was a beneficial opportunity that brushed me for my MSc dissertation. Throughout my MSc degree, I was working on examining the synoptic conditions and large-scale drivers leading to the heatwave developments and amplification across the UK, on which I confirmed my passion for the research and the smaller work chunk is soon expected to be submitted for peer review process. Aside from the research, by nature, I am a scientifically curious and detailed person, continuously asking that additional “Why?”
Why did you choose CENTA?
The CENTA positively diverges from other DTP schemes, offering a strong connection and partnership with the six UK universities and research partners within the consortium (UK Met Office, in my case), ensuring an excellent academic-to-industry ratio throughout the three and a half years of the PhD, access to the facilities and all requested resources needed for conducting research and analysis. Unlike others, the multidisciplinary approach is strongly supported by a plethora of excellent training opportunities within the consortium (e.g. NCEO, NCAS, Met Office, Environment Agency, UKCEH, etc) to broaden the knowledge, comprehend the importance and rationale of finding yourself in more than one field and/or expertise by acquiring transferrable skills.
Future plans
Throughout my PhD journey, my hopes are oriented:
- significantly improvement, if not excel, in technical and computing skills comprehension (i.e. coding, numerical modelling, thermal physics, etc);
- acquiring desirable, well-balanced science-to-social transferrable skills (i.e. communication information challenge to different audiences);
- improving in delivering speeches to a wider audience;
- overcoming the fears of delving into unknown territory (i.e. grind, fall and rise phases);
- undertaking valuable modelling training (i.e. statistics, numerical weather prediction, climate)
with the main task – to develop a reasonably well-performing two-dimensional energy climate balance model, which will exhibit a fundamental mark to the science contribution and close my formal academic education circle. The conducted research, published papers, presented conference results and established networks throughout all formal/informal events, with all subsequent processes experienced before and within the PhD period, shall open the academic/industry doors to apply the skillset to the various projects – from physics, meteorology and climatology to social science.